Rider Type · Data-Derived
Puncheur
Explosive on short steep efforts, strongest when fresh. Power drops with fatigue.
Over 14 rides and 133 segment results in 2026, Patrick Burke averaged in the top 47% of the field, with a −9 percentile points from the opening segments to the late-ride segments.
Over 14 rides and 133 segment results in 2026, Patrick Burke averaged in the top 47% of the field, with a −9 percentile points from the opening segments to the late-ride segments.
Fatigue Pattern — Field Percentile by Segment Position
Average field percentile per segment slot (lower = better; bar height = how far back)
Opening (S01–S02): top 41% avg →
Late (S07+): top 50% avg ·
Swing: −9 percentile points
Performance by Segment Type
By Distance
<0.4km (n=45 · 509W avg)
Top 49%
0.4–0.8km (n=46 · 450W avg)
Top 46%
>0.8km (n=42 · 417W avg)
Top 47%
By Gradient
<6% flat (n=30 · 452W avg)
Top 43%
6–10% mod (n=52 · 457W avg)
Top 46%
10–13% steep (n=39 · 472W avg)
Top 50%
>13% wall (n=12 · 435W avg)
Top 56%
Effort Profile
Punchy <0.45km ≥9% (n=35)
Top 51%
Threshold ≥0.7km ≥5% (n=38)
Top 51%
Peak Performances — Best 5 Segments
| Rank | Segment | Distance | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6/59 | Ravensbury | 0.94 km | 4.9% |
| 8/59 | Arboretum Drive | 0.55 km | 8.7% |
| 11/68 | Miranda Hill | 0.7 km | 3.8% |
| 16/90 | Prospect hill repeat | 0.59 km | 5.8% |
| 12/59 | Highlands Circle (east) | 0.33 km | 10.6% |
Toughest Moments — Worst 5 Segments
| Rank | Segment | Distance | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|
| 74/74 | Quinhill from University (Egan Official) | 0.31 km | 12.0% |
| 72/74 | Summerhill / Rockpoint | 0.36 km | 8.4% |
| 70/75 | Wildcrest to 2nd White Gate (Egan Official) | 0.37 km | 12.7% |
| 53/59 | Mora: Trail of Tribulation | 0.69 km | 10.4% |
| 53/59 | Bear Gulch to Gate | 0.34 km | 14.7% |
What the Data Suggests
💪
Strengths to Protect
Explosive anaerobic power on short steep climbs. Opening-segment aggression (top 41% on S1–S2). Wall-gradient efforts where torque beats sustained output. Don't over-train aerobic base at the expense of peak power — that edge is real.
🎯
Development Area
Aerobic threshold and repeatability — the gap between S1 (top 41%) and S7+ (top 50%) is 9 percentile points. Even closing that to 5 points would be transformative on long-format rides. Target: 2×20 threshold work and back-to-back climbing days to build the aerobic floor.
📊
The Real Enemy
Fatigue, not segment type. Power drops 18% from short to long segments (509W → 417W). The issue is power-at-fatigue (FTP relative to peak power) — on a fresh day the ceiling is genuinely high. One note: Ride 06 looks like a major outlier — averaging top 78% vs your season norm of top 47%. A single bad day (mechanical, illness, off route) is pulling down the headline numbers.
Pack Battle — Rivals Within 15 Seconds
Same-gender riders finishing within 15 s of Patrick across multiple rides (≥2 encounters).
🏴
Nemesis
Sebastian Brannstrom
0–3 in 3 encounters · 0% wins
⚔️
Rival
Alex Loo
1–1 in 2 encounters · 50% wins
🎯
Prey
Allen I
3–0 in 3 encounters · 100% wins
| Rider | Encounters | Patrick record | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🎯 Allen I | 3 | 3–0 | 100% |
| 🏴 Sebastian Brannstrom | 3 | 0–3 | 0% |
| 🎯 Rhodes walton | 2 | 2–0 | 100% |
| ⚔️ Alex Loo | 2 | 1–1 | 50% |
| ⚔️ Clay Wilderman | 2 | 1–1 | 50% |
| ⚔️ Brian Tam | 2 | 1–1 | 50% |
| 🏴 Kenny Ke | 2 | 0–2 | 0% |