Rider Type · Data-Derived
Sprinter
High-end power on flat or rolling terrain. Speed over gradient.
Over 10 rides and 93 segment results in 2026, matt stirrup averaged in the top 57% of the field, with a −5 percentile points from the opening segments to the late-ride segments.
Over 10 rides and 93 segment results in 2026, matt stirrup averaged in the top 57% of the field, with a −5 percentile points from the opening segments to the late-ride segments.
Fatigue Pattern — Field Percentile by Segment Position
Average field percentile per segment slot (lower = better; bar height = how far back)
Opening (S01–S02): top 52% avg →
Late (S07+): top 57% avg ·
Swing: −5 percentile points
Performance by Segment Type
By Distance
<0.4km (n=37 · 440W avg)
Top 57%
0.4–0.8km (n=33 · 370W avg)
Top 54%
>0.8km (n=23 · 321W avg)
Top 64%
By Gradient
<6% flat (n=16 · 384W avg)
Top 51%
6–10% mod (n=45 · 377W avg)
Top 58%
10–13% steep (n=28 · 394W avg)
Top 60%
>13% wall (n=4 · 423W avg)
Top 59%
Effort Profile
Punchy <0.45km ≥9% (n=24)
Top 62%
Threshold ≥0.7km ≥5% (n=24)
Top 64%
Peak Performances — Best 5 Segments
| Rank | Segment | Distance | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19/62 | Border Hill | 0.53 km | 8.3% |
| 18/57 | Arboretum Drive | 0.55 km | 8.7% |
| 19/59 | O'Keefe summitage | 0.41 km | 6.6% |
| 24/72 | Dirk's super short hill sprint | 0.18 km | 5.2% |
| 20/59 | Sierra Ventura | 0.57 km | 4.4% |
Toughest Moments — Worst 5 Segments
| Rank | Segment | Distance | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|
| 68/77 | Anacapa - Sir Francis to La Cresta | 0.92 km | 9.1% |
| 45/54 | Matadero Creek Ln - off Pagemill Rd | 0.23 km | 12.3% |
| 43/54 | Ascenscion + Anacapa | 0.85 km | 9.4% |
| 45/57 | Border Hill (official to summit) | 0.38 km | 11.5% |
| 82/104 | Portola Valley LKHC #3 Hillbrook | 0.49 km | 10.1% |
What the Data Suggests
💪
Strengths to Protect
High-end speed on flat and rolling terrain. Short explosive efforts when the gradient stays low — that's the ceiling. Top 52% when fresh on opening segments. Fast-twitch recruitment is the edge — don't grind it away with long endurance blocks.
🎯
Development Area
Sustained climbing — the 8-point gap between flat (top 51%) and steep (top 60%) performance is the main story. Threshold climbing work (sweet-spot on 6–10% gradients) would open up more of the Egan route catalog. Target rides with longer sustained pitches to build climbing-specific endurance.
📊
The Real Enemy
Gradient. Once the road tips up beyond 8%, the advantage erodes fast. Watts short vs long: 440W → 321W shows the pattern. Egan routes are climb-heavy, so working on climbing-specific power is the highest-leverage investment.
Pack Battle — Rivals Within 15 Seconds
Same-gender riders finishing within 15 s of matt across multiple rides (≥2 encounters).
🏴
Nemesis
Sam Lee
0–2 in 2 encounters · 0% wins
⚔️
Rival
Jonathan Lewis
1–1 in 2 encounters · 50% wins
🎯
Prey
Maurice Hauss
2–1 in 3 encounters · 67% wins
| Rider | Encounters | matt record | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🎯 Maurice Hauss | 3 | 2–1 | 67% |
| ⚔️ Jonathan Lewis | 2 | 1–1 | 50% |
| ⚔️ Sean Rowe | 2 | 1–1 | 50% |
| 🏴 Sam Lee | 2 | 0–2 | 0% |