Rider Type · Data-Derived
Puncheur
Explosive on short steep efforts, strongest when fresh. Power drops with fatigue.
Over 10 rides and 78 segment results in 2026, Derek Knowles averaged in the top 70% of the field, with a −4 percentile points from the opening segments to the late-ride segments.
Over 10 rides and 78 segment results in 2026, Derek Knowles averaged in the top 70% of the field, with a −4 percentile points from the opening segments to the late-ride segments.
Fatigue Pattern — Field Percentile by Segment Position
Average field percentile per segment slot (lower = better; bar height = how far back)
Opening (S01–S02): top 69% avg →
Late (S07+): top 74% avg ·
Swing: −4 percentile points
Performance by Segment Type
By Distance
<0.4km (n=33 · 302W avg)
Top 68%
0.4–0.8km (n=29 · 266W avg)
Top 70%
>0.8km (n=16 · 231W avg)
Top 74%
By Gradient
<6% flat (n=12 · 238W avg)
Top 84%
6–10% mod (n=41 · 266W avg)
Top 71%
10–13% steep (n=18 · 297W avg)
Top 62%
>13% wall (n=6 · 325W avg)
Top 52%
Effort Profile
Punchy <0.45km ≥9% (n=22)
Top 63%
Threshold ≥0.7km ≥5% (n=16)
Top 69%
Peak Performances — Best 5 Segments
| Rank | Segment | Distance | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/59 | Los Trancos (Egan Official) | 0.38 km | 11.8% |
| 30/77 | La Barranca Rd last steep part | 0.17 km | 14.2% |
| 31/74 | Summerhill / Rockpoint | 0.36 km | 8.4% |
| 28/64 | Viscaino Rd (East Side) | 0.6 km | 10.8% |
| 25/57 | nasty los trancos driveway | 0.63 km | 11.7% |
Toughest Moments — Worst 5 Segments
| Rank | Segment | Distance | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|
| 58/59 | Deodara, Vineyard to the end | 0.36 km | 5.4% |
| 71/75 | Dirk's super short hill sprint | 0.18 km | 5.2% |
| 71/75 | Quinnhill from Summerhill | 0.35 km | 7.5% |
| 63/67 | Hilltop Drive | 0.85 km | 4.4% |
| 56/60 | Loyola with Berkshire sidetrip | 1.29 km | 5.5% |
What the Data Suggests
💪
Strengths to Protect
Explosive anaerobic power on short steep climbs. Opening-segment aggression (top 69% on S1–S2). Wall-gradient efforts where torque beats sustained output. Don't over-train aerobic base at the expense of peak power — that edge is real.
🎯
Development Area
Aerobic threshold and repeatability — the gap between S1 (top 69%) and S7+ (top 74%) is 4 percentile points. Even closing that to 5 points would be transformative on long-format rides. Target: 2×20 threshold work and back-to-back climbing days to build the aerobic floor.
📊
The Real Enemy
Fatigue, not segment type. Power drops 24% from short to long segments (302W → 231W). The issue is power-at-fatigue (FTP relative to peak power) — on a fresh day the ceiling is genuinely high.
Pack Battle — Rivals Within 15 Seconds
Same-gender riders finishing within 15 s of Derek across multiple rides (≥2 encounters).
🏴
Nemesis
Christoph Zorich
0–3 in 3 encounters · 0% wins
⚔️
Rival
Claude Luu
1–1 in 2 encounters · 50% wins
🎯
Prey
Sigurd Lund
2–0 in 2 encounters · 100% wins
| Rider | Encounters | Derek record | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🏴 Christoph Zorich | 3 | 0–3 | 0% |
| 🎯 Sigurd Lund | 2 | 2–0 | 100% |
| 🎯 Jonathan Lewis | 2 | 2–0 | 100% |
| ⚔️ Claude Luu | 2 | 1–1 | 50% |
| ⚔️ Mitch Smith | 2 | 1–1 | 50% |
| ⚔️ Jim Palmer | 2 | 1–1 | 50% |
| ⚔️ Tony Sarathchandra | 2 | 1–1 | 50% |