Rider Type · Data-Derived
Puncheur
Explosive on short steep efforts, strongest when fresh. Power drops with fatigue.
Over 11 rides and 101 segment results in 2026, Dane Holte averaged in the top 36% of the field, with a +3 percentile points (improves!) from the opening segments to the late-ride segments.
Over 11 rides and 101 segment results in 2026, Dane Holte averaged in the top 36% of the field, with a +3 percentile points (improves!) from the opening segments to the late-ride segments.
Fatigue Pattern — Field Percentile by Segment Position
Average field percentile per segment slot (lower = better; bar height = how far back)
Opening (S01–S02): top 39% avg →
Late (S07+): top 36% avg ·
Swing: +3 percentile points (improves!)
Performance by Segment Type
By Distance
<0.4km (n=41 · 398W avg)
Top 33%
0.4–0.8km (n=39 · 316W avg)
Top 37%
>0.8km (n=21 · 264W avg)
Top 40%
By Gradient
<6% flat (n=20 · 365W avg)
Top 32%
6–10% mod (n=45 · 318W avg)
Top 37%
10–13% steep (n=27 · 326W avg)
Top 35%
>13% wall (n=9 · 320W avg)
Top 42%
Effort Profile
Punchy <0.45km ≥9% (n=26)
Top 35%
Threshold ≥0.7km ≥5% (n=21)
Top 41%
Peak Performances — Best 5 Segments
| Rank | Segment | Distance | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5/75 | Dirk's super short hill sprint | 0.18 km | 5.2% |
| 6/76 | Alta Tierra | 0.27 km | 10.0% |
| 8/66 | Emeraldhill Lane | 0.12 km | 12.3% |
| 9/74 | Quinhill from University (Egan Official) | 0.31 km | 12.0% |
| 7/56 | Morro Vista | 0.25 km | 8.1% |
Toughest Moments — Worst 5 Segments
| Rank | Segment | Distance | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|
| 48/65 | Tepa-Summit Wood | 0.94 km | 8.0% |
| 43/66 | La Rena Climb | 0.35 km | 7.3% |
| 40/62 | Mora: Trail of Tribulation | 0.69 km | 10.4% |
| 63/98 | Golden Oak - Sausal to top | 1.02 km | 6.6% |
| 39/62 | Ravensbury, back wall | 0.26 km | 14.0% |
What the Data Suggests
💪
Strengths to Protect
Explosive anaerobic power on short steep climbs. Opening-segment aggression (top 39% on S1–S2). Wall-gradient efforts where torque beats sustained output. Don't over-train aerobic base at the expense of peak power — that edge is real.
🎯
Development Area
Aerobic threshold and repeatability — the gap between S1 (top 39%) and S7+ (top 36%) is 3 percentile points. Even closing that to 5 points would be transformative on long-format rides. Target: 2×20 threshold work and back-to-back climbing days to build the aerobic floor.
📊
The Real Enemy
Fatigue, not segment type. Power drops 34% from short to long segments (398W → 264W). The issue is power-at-fatigue (FTP relative to peak power) — on a fresh day the ceiling is genuinely high.
Pack Battle — Rivals Within 15 Seconds
Same-gender riders finishing within 15 s of Dane across multiple rides (≥2 encounters).
🏴
Nemesis
Allen I
1–3 in 4 encounters · 25% wins
⚔️
Rival
Jerome S
1–1 in 2 encounters · 50% wins
🎯
Prey
Andrew Y
2–0 in 2 encounters · 100% wins
| Rider | Encounters | Dane record | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🏴 Allen I | 4 | 1–3 | 25% |
| 🎯 Andrew Y | 2 | 2–0 | 100% |
| 🎯 James Robinson | 2 | 2–0 | 100% |
| ⚔️ Jerome S | 2 | 1–1 | 50% |
| ⚔️ Rhodes walton | 2 | 1–1 | 50% |
| ⚔️ Matt Bierbaum | 2 | 1–1 | 50% |
| ⚔️ Steven Froelich | 2 | 1–1 | 50% |
| ⚔️ Brian Tam | 2 | 1–1 | 50% |
| ⚔️ Karl Frerichs | 2 | 1–1 | 50% |
| 🏴 David Remahl | 2 | 0–2 | 0% |