Rider Type · Data-Derived
Puncheur
Explosive on short steep efforts, strongest when fresh. Power drops with fatigue.
Over 18 rides and 172 segment results in 2026, Clay Wilderman averaged in the top 51% of the field, with a −10 percentile points from the opening segments to the late-ride segments.
Over 18 rides and 172 segment results in 2026, Clay Wilderman averaged in the top 51% of the field, with a −10 percentile points from the opening segments to the late-ride segments.
Fatigue Pattern — Field Percentile by Segment Position
Average field percentile per segment slot (lower = better; bar height = how far back)
Opening (S01–S02): top 47% avg →
Late (S07+): top 57% avg ·
Swing: −10 percentile points
Performance by Segment Type
By Distance
<0.4km (n=60 · 433W avg)
Top 53%
0.4–0.8km (n=61 · 390W avg)
Top 48%
>0.8km (n=51 · 334W avg)
Top 54%
By Gradient
<6% flat (n=36 · 380W avg)
Top 48%
6–10% mod (n=76 · 383W avg)
Top 53%
10–13% steep (n=46 · 410W avg)
Top 49%
>13% wall (n=13 · 378W avg)
Top 56%
Effort Profile
Punchy <0.45km ≥9% (n=44)
Top 51%
Threshold ≥0.7km ≥5% (n=48)
Top 54%
Peak Performances — Best 5 Segments
| Rank | Segment | Distance | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7/52 | Comer Climbs (Third) | 0.32 km | 10.3% |
| 12/70 | La Paloma from Westwind | 0.55 km | 6.9% |
| 10/58 | Willowbrook | 1.29 km | 2.1% |
| 10/58 | Elena Sprint | 0.56 km | 4.8% |
| 12/62 | Deer Creek Sprint (Egan Official) | 0.5 km | 4.7% |
Toughest Moments — Worst 5 Segments
| Rank | Segment | Distance | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|
| 62/62 | Tanglewood Lane | 0.21 km | 15.8% |
| 62/62 | Boronda View Sprint | 0.6 km | 4.4% |
| 61/62 | E Byrne Park & Deer Springs Way | 0.44 km | 6.7% |
| 57/59 | La Cresta | 1.32 km | 6.4% |
| 50/55 | Mora: Trail of Tribulation | 0.69 km | 10.4% |
What the Data Suggests
💪
Strengths to Protect
Explosive anaerobic power on short steep climbs. Opening-segment aggression (top 47% on S1–S2). Wall-gradient efforts where torque beats sustained output. Don't over-train aerobic base at the expense of peak power — that edge is real.
🎯
Development Area
Aerobic threshold and repeatability — the gap between S1 (top 47%) and S7+ (top 57%) is 10 percentile points. Even closing that to 5 points would be transformative on long-format rides. Target: 2×20 threshold work and back-to-back climbing days to build the aerobic floor.
📊
The Real Enemy
Fatigue, not segment type. Power drops 23% from short to long segments (433W → 334W). The issue is power-at-fatigue (FTP relative to peak power) — on a fresh day the ceiling is genuinely high.
Pack Battle — Rivals Within 15 Seconds
Same-gender riders finishing within 15 s of Clay across multiple rides (≥2 encounters).
🏴
Nemesis
James Robinson
1–2 in 3 encounters · 33% wins
⚔️
Rival
Michael Muhler
1–1 in 2 encounters · 50% wins
🎯
Prey
Matt Bierbaum
2–0 in 2 encounters · 100% wins
| Rider | Encounters | Clay record | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🏴 James Robinson | 3 | 1–2 | 33% |
| 🎯 Matt Bierbaum | 2 | 2–0 | 100% |
| 🎯 Christoph Zorich | 2 | 2–0 | 100% |
| ⚔️ Michael Muhler | 2 | 1–1 | 50% |
| ⚔️ Christophe Testi 🇫🇷 🇺🇸 | 2 | 1–1 | 50% |
| ⚔️ Patrick Burke | 2 | 1–1 | 50% |
| ⚔️ Renato Berlinghieri | 2 | 1–1 | 50% |
| 🏴 Alex Loo | 2 | 0–2 | 0% |