Rider Type · Data-Derived
Puncheur
Explosive on short steep efforts, strongest when fresh. Power drops with fatigue.
Over 19 rides and 183 segment results in 2026, Clay Wilderman averaged in the top 50% of the field, with a −6 percentile points from the opening segments to the late-ride segments.
Over 19 rides and 183 segment results in 2026, Clay Wilderman averaged in the top 50% of the field, with a −6 percentile points from the opening segments to the late-ride segments.
Fatigue Pattern — Field Percentile by Segment Position
Average field percentile per segment slot (lower = better; bar height = how far back)
Opening (S01–S02): top 48% avg →
Late (S07+): top 54% avg ·
Swing: −6 percentile points
Performance by Segment Type
By Distance
<0.4km (n=67 · 461W avg)
Top 50%
0.4–0.8km (n=65 · 399W avg)
Top 47%
>0.8km (n=51 · 334W avg)
Top 54%
By Gradient
<6% flat (n=40 · 429W avg)
Top 44%
6–10% mod (n=81 · 388W avg)
Top 53%
10–13% steep (n=48 · 418W avg)
Top 48%
>13% wall (n=13 · 378W avg)
Top 56%
Effort Profile
Punchy <0.45km ≥9% (n=46)
Top 50%
Threshold ≥0.7km ≥5% (n=48)
Top 54%
Peak Performances — Best 5 Segments
| Rank | Segment | Distance | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1/66 | Stonebrook to Prospect | 0.47 km | 5.5% |
| 1/58 | Duval Way outbound | 0.33 km | 4.4% |
| 1/54 | Matadero Creek Ln - off Pagemill Rd | 0.23 km | 12.3% |
| 2/59 | Deodara, Vineyard to the end | 0.36 km | 5.4% |
| 5/75 | Dirk's super short hill sprint | 0.18 km | 5.2% |
Toughest Moments — Worst 5 Segments
| Rank | Segment | Distance | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|
| 62/62 | Tanglewood Lane | 0.21 km | 15.8% |
| 62/62 | Boronda View Sprint | 0.6 km | 4.4% |
| 61/62 | E Byrne Park & Deer Springs Way | 0.44 km | 6.7% |
| 57/59 | La Cresta | 1.32 km | 6.4% |
| 50/55 | Mora: Trail of Tribulation | 0.69 km | 10.4% |
What the Data Suggests
💪
Strengths to Protect
Explosive anaerobic power on short steep climbs. Opening-segment aggression (top 48% on S1–S2). Wall-gradient efforts where torque beats sustained output. Don't over-train aerobic base at the expense of peak power — that edge is real.
🎯
Development Area
Aerobic threshold and repeatability — the gap between S1 (top 48%) and S7+ (top 54%) is 6 percentile points. Even closing that to 5 points would be transformative on long-format rides. Target: 2×20 threshold work and back-to-back climbing days to build the aerobic floor.
📊
The Real Enemy
Fatigue, not segment type. Power drops 28% from short to long segments (461W → 334W). The issue is power-at-fatigue (FTP relative to peak power) — on a fresh day the ceiling is genuinely high.
Season Bookends — Egan 1 vs Egan 28
+8.2%
← fasterslower →
| Segment | Egan 1 Mar 10 | Egan 28 Sep 15 | Δ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S01La Paloma from Westwind | 1:44 | = | 1:44 | = |
| S02La Barranca Rd | 48s | −2.1% | 49s | ▼ 1s |
| S03Taaffe from Dezahara (Egan Official) | 1:48 | +11.1% | 1:36 | ▲ 12s |
| S04Stonebrook from Priscilla | 1:24 | −1.2% | 1:25 | ▼ 1s |
| S05Dirk's super short hill sprint | 32s | +46.9% | 17s | ▲ 15s |
| S06Quinnhill from Summerhill | 1:08 | +14.7% | 58s | ▲ 10s |
| S07Madonna Way | 1:45 | +9.5% | 1:35 | ▲ 10s |
| GCTotal time | 9:09 | 8:24 | ▲ 45s |
Finished the season 45s faster — a 8.2% improvement from Egan 1 to Egan 28.
Pack Battle — Rivals Within 15 Seconds
Same-gender riders finishing within 15 s of Clay across multiple rides (≥2 encounters).
🏴
Nemesis
James Robinson
1–3 in 4 encounters · 25% wins
⚔️
Rival
Michael Muhler
1–1 in 2 encounters · 50% wins
🎯
Prey
Matt Bierbaum
2–0 in 2 encounters · 100% wins
| Rider | Encounters | Clay record | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🏴 James Robinson | 4 | 1–3 | 25% |
| 🎯 Matt Bierbaum | 2 | 2–0 | 100% |
| 🎯 Christoph Zorich | 2 | 2–0 | 100% |
| ⚔️ Michael Muhler | 2 | 1–1 | 50% |
| ⚔️ Christophe Testi 🇫🇷 🇺🇸 | 2 | 1–1 | 50% |
| ⚔️ Patrick Burke | 2 | 1–1 | 50% |
| ⚔️ Renato Berlinghieri | 2 | 1–1 | 50% |
| ⚔️ Sam Roberge-Arnott | 2 | 1–1 | 50% |
| 🏴 Alex Loo | 2 | 0–2 | 0% |
| 🏴 Robert Ragno | 2 | 0–2 | 0% |